Box Office Predictions!

For those of you who don’t know, E and I first met when working in Paramount’s finance department. As part of our job, we had to calculate IRR on new movies, which required a deep knowledge of how the box office operates and a complete understanding of the factors that help shape a film’s opening weekend take. So, that being said, we’re going to offer our predictions for the summer’s biggest movie, The Dark Knight.

Here’s an article that says over $200 million wouldn’t really be that tough for the film. Now, Spider-Man 3 has the previous biggest opening weekend of all time at $151 million. So, the author doesn’t see the problem with The Dark Knight surpassing the previous record-holder by 33%. I agree, though I have also bet my mortgage on Asafa Powell running the 100 meters at this year’s Olympics in under four seconds.

Frankly, I don’t see any reason to be so conservative. I predict the film will take in $Texas this weekend. Ultimately, I suspect this will lead to a war of secession, in which Warner Bros., fat with Batman cash, purchases most of the southwestern United States, renaming them The Republic of Ledgeria. A short shooting war will ensue, which will end when Ledgeria’s Commander-in-Chief, Christopher Nolan, proves incapable of competently directing his troops in action.

On a personal note, I fully intend to contract leprosy before seeing the film, as I am certain that the nuanced plotting and robust characterization will heal me. But, don’t be surprised if the film exceeds my expectations.

Unlike LD, I have lofty expectations for this weekend’s TDK box office performance. Did you know that the Gross Domestic Product of Zambia is $13.025 BILLION dollars? I bet you thought Zambia was some poor sap of a country like Benin, which barely tops out $8B in GDP. But it’s all that copper, man. Zambia exports so much copper, that it totally kicks the shit out of countries like Vanuatu or Lichtenstein. Some say that $200M is too much to expect from TDK, I disagree. I think that TDK will gross close to $13B, allowing Warner Bros. to purchase Zambia and all of its rich copper stockpiles. Why, you might ask? It’s all part of their plan to rule the world…by controlling what binds us all together. Electrical wiring. Why else do you think the viral marketing’s been so heavy for this movie?

Or I believe it’ll top out around $157M, breaking the record, but not by too much. Either way, it’s cool with me.