October Surprise II [politics]

Question (from e-roc): With the election just days away, and in an effort to educate myself, could one of the GP members please counter-point the “October Surprise” argument?

That argument being that something new will happen that will shake up the election in a fundamental way, giving it to McCain? Or the absurd straw argument I made about Obama being accused in some circles of killing his grandmother?

The latter is absurd and not believed by even a small slice of America, as far as I know. If this is the one you mean, since I stuck it forward in what I thought was apparent jest, I’ll be happy to fully counterpoint it because it’s ludicrous.

But the former is always possible. I wouldn’t say that it’s an argument, though, so maybe I’m missing your meaning/question.

Even if something major were to happen — the news media sometimes mentions a terrorist strike on American soil — I don’t believe that would tip the scales for McCain. It could be viewed (accurately) as additional evidence that the foreign policy of the Bush administration that McCain champions were more of a cause than a solution to terrorism.

But that’s not an “October Surprise” in the traditional sense that it’s not something the McCain campaign cooked up to spring on Obama. I think the “pals around with terrorists” line of associations with Bill Ayers probably fits in this camp, but the mileage for that association is already taken into account.

Anything is possible, but Obama’s primary skill as a politician, in my view, is that he’s not easily spun. He gets on there and gets on message, and what he says is usually responsive and thoughtful (though I don’t always agree). So, it’s hard to imagine a “surprise” that would tip the election. People in 30 states have already started voting early.

None of this is to say the election is in the bag. While a “surprise” isn’t likely to knock things one way or another, I’m not convince that there’s a presumption for either candidate. I just believe that most of the information and disinformation is out there already and has been thoroughly sifted by the public. There are very few undecided people who don’t have the information on which they will ultimately base their decision, even if they haven’t yet made it (which is just a guess on my part). In any case, get out and vote for whomever you would like. From an Obama supporter’s perspective, I would imagine that the biggest and most dangerous October Surprise would be a lower than expected turnout.